You may have heard that solar activity and therefore auroral activity is at a maximum in the year 2000. This maximum will last about four to five years, and what it means is that there will be more auroras visible from locations south of the main occurrence zone than during the solar minimum years. During the active part of the solar cycle, it is difficult to predict aurora beyond about three days, since the predominant source of activity is sporadic outbursts from various active regions. During sunspot minimum (2006-10), the main sources of activity are more stable both in location and intensity, so that we can more confidently predict the return of activity with the 28-day rotation of the sun. We cannot say whether the aurora will be active during the two weeks you will choose to travel north to see the aurora six months from now. However, we can isolate the days of higher activity in each solar rotation (28 days) as much as two rotations in advance. We note these dates in the auroral forecast under forecaster's comments and in the 'auroral alert' service.

Fairbanks is not at the location of the greatest occurrence frequency of aurora, but you can see it from here, and transportation and accommodation is relatively more efficient than Bettles, Coldfoot, Fort Yukon, Prudhoe and Point Barrow. Besides, the aurora is brighter and more active the farther equatorward it occurs, so Fairbanks is a good balance of occurrence frequency and activity. Canadian towns as good as Fairbanks for aurora are Whitehorse, Dawson, Watson Lake, Yellowknife, Fort Nelson, Fort Smith, Fort McMurray, Flin Flon, Grand Rapids, Gillam in Ontario and around southern Hudson Bay and James Bay.

For those of you on the East Coast and Eastern Middle West, the best plan would be to drive north as far as possible, since the chance of seeing aurora increases very quickly until the latitude of James Bay. The towns in Ontario north of the Great Lakes (Cochrane, Kapuskasing, etc. In Quebec, Matagami and Chibougamau) are good places with chances of seeing aurora on roughly five out of ten clear, dark nights. Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Edmonton have about the same probability.

At the locations listed above, during any two-week period, there will aurora visible on 9 out of 10 clear nights and an active aurora on 4 of 10 nights.

This is determined, of course, by activity on the sun, which is like a teakettle, boiling and bubbling when and where it wants. Farther east, the weather is the predominant limiting factor. Unfortunately the region known as the Canadian Maritimes, southern Greenland and Iceland are usually cloud bound and the aurora is not visible.

Where you stay is not as important as arranging for transportation outside town to avoid city lights, and to acquire a clear view of the northern horizon. Dress warmly, and plan to watch the sky between 10 PM and 2 AM local time, although an active period can occur anytime during the dark hours. Active periods are about 30 minutes long, occurring every 2 hours.

If you can monitor the "short term forecast", it will reliably tell you what is expected in the next hour.

When you travel should depend on the best chance for clear skies and little or no moonlight. For destinations, that means December through April, for two weeks around the dark of the moon. The best for weather, darkness, and daytime activities is February/March/April.

We recognize that the aurora is visible at night across the US during the summer when we cease publication of the daily reports in Alaska because of our sunlit nights. The midnight aurora is at the northern border of the US when the planetary magnetic disturbance index, Kp, is higher than 4 to 5.

We will post warnings as events on the sun and in the solar wind appear to be large enough to produce disturbances greater than or equal to Kp = 4+.

We post the predicted arrival of disturbances as soon as we are able after the solar events. This should include some estimate of the time of arrival and the magnitude of the event so those of you in the northern half of the US at least may have a good chance of seeing an aurora.

The residents of Fairbanks, Alaska are accustomed to spectacular views of the aurora borealis or northern lights. Many of them routinely stay up late at night to photograph this phenomenon, or just to experience the widely different forms it takes with each new display. Most people view from their homes, but many travel out of town away from the city lights for the most spectacular views.

The best time of year is in the spring when the probability for clear skies is twice as good as in the fall. Two weeks around new moon in March is best, viewing is good from early January to late April, however.

If you must come in the fall, the last two weeks of August, and the first three weeks of September are best for weather, but the aurora is there behind the clouds (60% probability) during the entire winter.

The time for viewing is between evening and morning civil twilights (sun 6 degrees below the horizon) on clear or even partly cloudy nights.

Major storms can occur anytime and local intensification is most common between 10 pm and 2 am. The viewing is best with little or no moonlight.

Visitors to Fairbanks should travel to a place up on a hill so as to have the best view of the horizon, since they must make the most of their viewing time and the aurora can occur in any part of the sky. During solar activity maximum years, most auroral storms start south of Fairbanks. During the solar activity minimum years, 2006-08, the auroral storms start north of Fairbanks and occur in the midnight hours.

Although trees make good foreground in auroral photographs, too many of them can limit the full experience of the aurora. Another concern for visitors is that it is often cold, winter weather, and some small problems may be magnified into disaster at a site that is too remote.

You may arrange for a wake-up call in some Fairbanks hotels when the aurora is out. Vistors to the Fairbanks Princess, and Pikes Lodge can go out on

the river where it is relatively dark for a good view of the sky.

Recommended sites around Fairbanks are:

Chena Lakes Recreation Area

Ester, Wickersham, and Murphy Domes

Haystack Mountain

Some turnouts along the Eliot, Steese, and Parks Highways

Cleary Summit

Of these, only Cleary Summit satisfies all of the criteria for a good viewing place. It is close enough to town (17 mi.) so that viewers can stay at any hotel, experience daytime activities, and yet have a dark, quiet place with a good view to the horizon all around. There is good highway access, a parking lot, an auroral viewing concession, and tourist accommodations.

We should mention also that there might be some who are waiting to hear the aurora. This is the ultimate experience for the aurora watcher.

It may only be done successfully during the most active overhead displays, on windless nights and away from any other noise sources such as dogs barking or traffic noise.