| There is a strong relationship
between the solar wind and the aurora.
The aurora is generated by the speed of the solar wind and the
direction and magnitude of the magnetic field in the solar wind.
Unfortunately, our solar wind model does not yet yield a good
measure of the magnetic field in the solar wind, also called the
interplanetary magnetic field or IMF. Our prediction is therefore
based on the solar wind speed. Our prediction of the solar wind
speed is the dotted line, and the actual (measured) wind speed is
the solid line.

The Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity Plot is a
comparison of the solar wind speed near Earth and the geomagnetic
activity that it generates. Low solar wind speeds are approximately
300 kilometers per second (about 650,000 miles per hour), but when a
solar event blasts out material into space or a fast stream from the
sun intercepts Earth it can rise to more than 2,500 kilometers per
second. Because the sun is 150,000,000 kilometers (about 92,000,000
miles) from Earth, it takes from 17 hours to 7 days for the disturbance to
reach Earth.
When the disturbance, in the form of increased
velocity and changing IMF, reaches Earth it increases the electrical
currents in the Earth's magnetic field, just like an electrical
generator. These currents flow throughout the magnetic field,
including into the atmosphere above the poles, generating the
aurora. The higher the solar wind velocity, the greater the
electrical currents in the magnetic field and the greater the
magnetic disturbance. Thus, the magnetic disturbance is a measure of
the strength and extent of the auroral activity. Kp is the measure
of the disturbance. It ranges from 0 to 9. A value of 0 corresponds
to the aurora over Point Barrow, Alaska. A value of 9 corresponds to
aurora over Texas. The aurora reaches the Canadian border around Kp
= 4 (yellow). 0 to 3 is green and 5 to 9 is red in the colored bars.
For more on the relationship between aurora and magnetic activity go
to
http://sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/index.html.
Because the sources of disturbances on the sun
tend to repeat, especially during low activity periods, we have
arranged the plots according to the 28 day solar rotation period.
These are called Carrington rotations in honor of the astronomer who
first noticed the relationship between disturbances on the sun and
magnetic activity on Earth. Because the activity tends to repeat,
and we have included a 28 day solar wind velocity prediction, you
can plan your auroral viewing periods a month or so in advance.
|