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The Solar Wind
Interpret the Solar Wind Plot

Interpret the Solar Wind/Geomagnetic Activity Plot

Can I see the aurora? (Click here to find out.)

To determine if the aurora will be visible from your area, follow these steps for using the auroral forecast website.

Step 1. Choose a view.

On the left hand side of the website is a choice of 5 different maps to display the prediction of the nighttime aurora. Click on the map that best shows your location.

Step 2. Check the activity necessary for your area.

After you have selected your map, visit the Interpreting the Forecast page. You will see your map displayed for each of the 10 forecast levels (0 to 9). Find the levels where your location is inside the green line. For example, on the North America map, Chicago requires a 3 to see the aurora on the northern horizon and at least a 5 to see it overhead.

Step 3. Check activity for the day of interest.

Check the main forecast for the day of interest. If your location is within the green line on the equatorward side of the green and white band around the pole, you should plan on aurora watching that night.

Step 4. Check the short-term forecast.

To see if the aurora will be visible from your location within the next hour, look at the "short term forecast" on the right hand side of the display. This is a continually updated forecast, based on an actual satellite measurement, so if it shows an index 5 and you are in Seattle, Chicago, New York City, Halifax or anywhere under the green and white band, then there is aurora overhead. If the sun is down, you should go outside, away from city lights with a view of the poleward horizon, and look for it. It will be most active between 10 pm and 2 am.

Step 5. Plan ahead.

To plan a trip to the auroral zone, use the "Long-term (28-day) Forecast" (at right) and the "Solar Wind/Geomagnetic Activity Plot" (to the left).

Viewing the Aurora in the Northern Summer (Click here to see if it's possible.)

During the northern summer, sunlight prevents viewing the aurora at high northern latitudes. As the sun climbs in the sky until June 21st and then descends, the nights are too light to see the aurora. Because the magnetic pole is displaced toward North America, the auroral zone shown on our maps is at low enough latitudes to be seen even in the summer. Here are the rules of thumb for auroral viewing based on your latitude.

North of 65°

North of 65° latitude, aurora viewing very limited May 1 through August 10. The auroral index should be 2 or more to see it south of this latitude.

North of 60°

North of 60° latitude, aurora viewing very limited May 15 through August 1. The auroral index should be 3 or more to see it south of this latitude.

North of 55°

North of 55° latitude, aurora viewing very limited June 10 through July 1. The auroral index should be 4 or more to see it south of this latitude.

South of 55°

South of 55 degrees latitude, the aurora should be visible to observers in Canada and the northern US all summer if the auroral index is 4 or more.

Aurora Forecast for Thursday, December 14, 2006

HIGH+:

Name of forecaster: Charles Deehr

Time of prediction: 12/13/2006 9:48:00 AM*

Forecast:
Additional Forecaster comments: The solar active region that came around the limb last week is now facing Earth. There was a large solar flare with attendant coronal mass ejection from this region at 0224 GMT on the 13th. This interplanetary disturbance should reach the Earth on the morning of the 14th GMT. It could take up to 12 hours to transfer its power to the geomagnetic field. The conclusion is watch the sky tonight and tomorrow night in North America perhaps as far south as the middle US and tomorrow night in Europe as far south as northern Europe. The aurora should be visible also from Tasmania and South New Zealand.
You can watch our simulation of the shock travel from the sun to the planets if you go to http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/
and click on the black map on the left side of the page to watch the Java movie of the interplanetary shock.
Click on the short-term (1 hr) forecast map on the right hand side of the page to see what will happen in the next hour. That way you won't have to stand around outside like those in the maritimes right now in a 36 deg. drizzle and watch the cloudy sky.
If it is clear where you are, watch for the Geminid meteors too.
* Alaska Daylight Time (AKDT) is 8 hours behind Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or Universal Time (UT). Alaska Standard Time (AKST) is 9 hours behind GMT or UT.

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How to make a long term forecast
Short Term (1 hr) Forecast for
Wednesday, February 10, 2010 3:21:19 GMT is
LOW

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